New and Improved Super-Definitive Presidential Rankings
As promised, I listened to readers and modified my August rankings.
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Last time, I promised to step away from politics and move on to healthcare, economics, the Mideast, and popular culture. I’ve nearly finished essays on each of those, but happened to complete this one additional political piece first. Non-political pieces start next time. Really.
In mid-1974, James J. Kilpatrick offered a desperate it’s-not-over-yet defense of Richard Nixon on 60 Minutes. His Point/Counterpoint nemesis, the sardonic Nicholas von Hoffman, responded (as I recall):
“Jaaaaaaaaaack. Richard Nixon is like the dead mouse on the kitchen floor, and everyone in the family is just TOOOOOOO squeamish to just pick him up and DRRROP him in the compactor.”
In early August, Nancy Pelosi said Joe Biden was “such a consequential president” that he deserved to be sculpted onto Mount Rushmore. But shortly after her party’s election catastrophe, Pelosi stomped into the kitchen, snatched Biden up by the tail, flung him into the compactor, and jammed her finger on the red button. She blamed him for lingering too long and for forcing the party to nominate the ill-starred Kamala Harris.
While Democrats do the Danse Macabre over the remains of Biden’s reputation and Republicans form a Trump Dance conga line around them, it’s a good time to revise my “subjective, transitory, slightly puckish” presidential rankings from August. I’ll explain my changes in three sections:
Love him or hate him, a second term means that Donald Trump’s ultimate reputation is now anyone’s guess. So in the revised chart, he gets question marks around his name. For precedent, I review Franklin Roosevelt’s mid-presidency extreme makeover. As a two-termer, he would have ranked among history’s worst presidents—combining the least attractive features of Donald Trump and Herbert Hoover; but a third term and sliver of a fourth vaulted him into the company of Washington, Lincoln, and Cousin Teddy.
In line with Pelosi’s post-election volte-face, I demote Joe Biden from “somewhat negative” to “highly negative.” At this point, no one should be pleased with Biden’s presidency. His policies, actions, inactions, rhetoric, and anointed successor sent half of America fleeing into the welcoming arms of Donald Trump and the other half into the political desert without a canteen.
For reasons explained below, in my revised rankings, the younger Adams and elder Bush rise, and Jackson plummets. Readers suggested shifts in seven others, but I left them in place.
My original rankings followed two essays (here and here) on the preposterous “greatness” rankings offered in February by a hive of historians. Here’s my updated chart, highlighting the changes with yellow highlights and red arrows.
DONALD TRUMP INTO THE UNKNOWN
The week before winning a second term, Donald Trump held a massive rally at Madison Square Garden. In his speech, broadcast across the nation, he defiantly railed against the nefarious forces opposing him:
“We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob. Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me—and I welcome their hatred.”
Thousands of zealous attendees responded with deafening cheers and jeers to this pampered rich kid-turned-raging populist. With his narcissism in high gear, accentuated by his thick New York accent, Trump offered endless praise of his own first term, accused his adversaries of harming working-class families and economic recovery, and promised that he had “just begun to fight.” He wanted people to look back on his first term as a time when “the forces of selfishness and of lust for power met their match” and his second term as a time when those same forces “met their master.” The ominous tones of the speech alarmed his opponents and worried some of his own supporters—particularly those in the business community. Trump had an Ivy League degree with a focus on economics but, many grumbled, he had been an indifferent and undistinguished student—and those shortcomings still showed.
OOPS! … Every word above is accurate—except that the president involved was Franklin Roosevelt, not Donald Trump, and the Madison Square Garden event October 31, 1936, not October 28, 2024. Of course, FDR’s New York accent was that of Manhattan patricians, whereas Trump’s is a plebeian Outer Borough cadence.
Roosevelt’s fevered rhetoric was matched by his vindictiveness as president. In The Forgotten Man, Amity Shlaes describes how he harnessed the levers of government in his years-long quest to destroy former Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon. Mellon was doing something secretive, and FDR assumed it must be heinous; in fact, Mellon was quietly purchasing vast amounts of artwork that he would soon donate to the people of America in the form of the National Gallery.
Contrary to hagiographic mythology, FDR’s New Deal didn’t restore prosperity. He continued Herbert Hoover’s aimless, ever-shifting economic improvisations—making it impossible for businesses to plan and rebuild. In 1939, FDR’s own Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau, Jr., described the New Deal’s failure:
“We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. … We have never made good on our promises. ... I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. ... And an enormous debt to boot!”
Had FDR left after two terms, his legacy would be eight years of Hooverian economics, Trumpian rhetoric, Machiavellian vendettas, and Chamberlainian nonchalance toward Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. As with Trump in 2024, many party leaders in 1940 didn’t want FDR to have a third nomination, but his ego told him that he alone had the skills to take on the gathering storm abroad. He may well have been correct; in his final four years and three months, FDR became the single most successful wartime president in U.S. history—arguably saving the world from a long, dark night of Nazism, Fascism, and Imperialism. Contrary to Pelosi’s Biden-on-Rushmore nonsense, FDR has long been the obvious fifth face for the mountainside.
And lest readers confuse the moral of this story, the message here is not “Trump will become FDR,” but rather “FDR began as Trump.” I haven’t a clue where Trump’s reputation will end up—and neither do you.
My original rankings placed Trump in Tier 4 for the same reasons LBJ and Jackson are there—towering achievements tarnished by caustic personality. The August essay said:
“Striking array of accomplishments as president mutilated by shambolic and self-destructive behavior; Abraham Accords; embassy to Jerusalem; crushing ISIS; isolating Hamas; energy independence (thereby starving Putin, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah of cash); killing Obama’s Iran deal; three decisive policy actions that enabled the impossible—a COVID vaccine in under a year; roaring economy until COVID (somewhat sullied by fondness for tariffs); record low unemployment for African Americans and Hispanic Americans; stunning success with judicial appointments; establishment of U.S. Space Force; surprisingly rapid economic recovery as COVID ended; deregulation; border enforcement; BUT, dereliction of duty in quelling January 6 mob; ebola-level verbal diarrhea generating endless caricaturable quotes; overkill in criticizing adversaries and senseless vilification of allies; personal insecurities that would shock Freud; damage to social fabric aside, endless railing against 2020 election (and January 6 negligence) takes Olympic Gold in self-destruction; had Trump simply congratulated Biden in 2020 and gone back to Mar-a-Lago to plot his 2024 revenge, he would almost certainly be a shoo-in for the current election (see ‘Frog and Scorpion’).”
Well, Joe, Kamala, and Crew made Trump a shoo-in anyway, giving him a second chance to shape his legacy. Anyone who thinks they know how this story ends lives in a bubble—perhaps in San Francisco.
JOE BIDEN INTO THE COMPACTOR
In February, a New York Times title and subtitle summarized the then-just-released “2024 Presidential Greatness Project Expert Survey”:
“Poll Ranks Biden as 14th-Best President, With Trump Last: President Biden may owe his place in the top third to his predecessor: Mr. Biden’s signature accomplishment, according to the historians, was evicting Donald J. Trump from the Oval Office.”
Justin Vaughn and Brandon Rottinghaus, the survey’s authors wrote:
“Biden’s most important achievements may be that he rescued the presidency from Trump, resumed a more traditional style of presidential leadership and is gearing up to keep the office out of his predecessor’s hands this fall.”
As goes a popular meme, “It's a bold strategy, Cotton! Let's see if it pays off for ‘em.” In hindsight, Biden’s signature accomplishment was turbocharging Trump, extending his grip by four years, and retroactively defining Biden’s presidency as an impotent interregnum with an erasable policy footprint. After my August rankings article, a number of readers suggesting downgrading Biden. Reader Jorg wrote:
“I looked in vain for the positive accomplishments of Biden that kept him out of Tier 5. I think you need an addendum there.”
I agree, and the election has greatly reinforced this perception. Following is an updated list of the failings of the Biden years—a mix of actions that he and his administration took, actions they failed to take, and behavior by allies that was encouraged, tolerated, or ignored by Biden and his coterie.
COGNITIVE COVERUP: Disastrous debate with Trump revealing extent of cognitive decline. Forced to relinquish nomination. Ceased meeting with House Democratic Caucus in Fall 2021. Ceased meeting with Cabinet in Fall 2023. For years, insiders adamantly insisted he was “sharp as a tack,” a workaholic with boundless energy, and the victim of “cheapfakes” falsely suggesting infirmities.
ECONOMICS: Spending extravaganzas generated much debt and inflation and little growth.
MILITARY: Catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Inaction against Houthi attacks on shipping. Failed to adequately recognize and punish Hamas’s murder of nearly four dozen Americans and kidnapping of still more. Wasted hundreds of millions on structurally unstable Gaza pier. Resumed Obama’s cash-for-empty-promises deal with Iran.
ENERGY: Ended energy independence, producing massive windfalls for Russia and Iran (and, indirectly, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis). Essentially,Americans’ higher fuel bills funded the attacks on Ukraine and Israel.
RULE OF LAW: Lawfare against opponents, including but not limited to Trump. Illegal mobs allowed to surround Supreme Court Justices’ homes for months—nearly leading to Kavanaugh’s assassination. Ignoring immigration laws.
COVID MITIGATION: Draconian COVID strategies violated civil liberties, harmed individuals, failed to mitigate. Vilified scientists who questioned lockdowns, masking, lab-leak, etc.
CENSORSHIP: Pressured social media platforms to censor unwelcome scientific data. Pressured platforms to censor and demonetize legitimate news stories (e.g., Hunter’s laptop.)
CIVILITY: Normalized “fascist,” “Nazi,” “end of democracy” libels against adversaries. Repeated debunked hoaxes (e.g., “very fine people” “inject bleach”). Prattled endlessly about 200 long-forgotten nobodies who marched in Charlottesville seven years ago but said and did little about nationwide explosion of antisemitic demonstrations, intimidation, and violence.
ISRAEL: Made America an unreliable ally for Israel. Tepid statements about Israel’s right to defend itself interleaved with demands for “ceasefire” rather than “victory.” Pressured Israel to refrain from essential military actions (e.g., pursuing terrorists in Rafah). Tolerated libelous anti-Israel terminology (e.g., “apartheid,” “genocide,” “colonialism”) from the Squad and other party activists. There were no Sister Souljah Moments from Biden.
IDENTITY POLITICS: Discarded the idea of equal opportunity with the ubiquitous, intrusive neo-eugenics of DEI. Vilified whites, males, other disfavored groups. Ethnic queuing for medications.
PATRONIZATION: Condescension toward demographic groups. (Biden’s “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” Obama accusing black males of misogyny.)
SUCCESSOR: Forced his party to nominate Kamala Harris—an African American/Asian American woman who managed to drive away African Americans, Asian Americans, and women in record numbers—along with Hispanic Americans, Native Americans, Jews, Muslims, and union workers.
THREE PLUS SEVEN OTHER PRESIDENTS
Based on reader’s thoughts and my own introspection, I shifted three presidents:
JOHN QUINCY ADAMS moves up one tier. Gregory Koster noted his service as an anti-slavery Congressman, and I thought of Adams’s courageous defense of the Amistad captives.
ANDREW JACKSON drops two tiers. His foul deeds (e.g., Indian Removal Act, Trail of Tears, attacks on Abolitionists) really outweigh his good deeds (e.g., quashing nullification, threatening to hang John C. Calhoun) by a lot.
GEORGE H. W. BUSH rises one tier, based on Carl Pham’s reminder of Bush’s critical role in ending the Cold War peacefully.
Despite thoughtful arguments by readers, I declined to move the following seven:
Michael Morley suggested demoting MILLARD FILLMORE over the Fugitive Slave Act, but reader George Avery offered a litany of positives.
Several thought ABRAHAM LINCOLN launched an unnecessary Civil War and deserves to be in the worst rankings. I disagree. For me, the Confederacy forced his hand, and the world would have been a far worse place without Lincoln’s painful decisions.
Someone wanted to downgrade TEDDY ROOSEVELT for launching a century of Progressive federal government overreach. I sympathize, but for me, his clarity and strength in foreign policy was essential to preparing America for superpower status in the 20th century. (If only Carter and Biden had understood the lessons of the Perdicaris Affair.)
Several suggested downgrading CALVIN COOLIDGE for signing the Immigration Act of 1924. It was a terrible law, but I had already incorporated that negative in my original rankings.
A friend thought LYNDON JOHNSON deserved to be in the lowest ranking, owing to Vietnam, fiscal irresponsibility, and lack of ethics. For me, shepherding the Civil Rights Act warrants a one-tier upgrade.
Several thought DWIGHT EISENHOWER deserved Tier 1. I’m tempted, but for now, I’ll keep him as the greatest of Tier 2 rather than the least of Tier 1.
My single most respected reader suggested elevating JIMMY CARTER for, among other things, deregulating transportation. Kudos for that, but Carter’s positives are buried beneath an avalanche of negatives: the Iran Hostage crisis, energy crisis, high inflation and interest rates, general gloominess, decades of post-presidency sniping at his successors, and coining or popularizing an antisemitic smear against Israel (“Apartheid State”).
JAAAAAAAAAACK!!!!
I can’t find a clip of their mouse-in-the-compactor exchange, but here’s another Watergate-Era dialogue between the ever-earnest James J. Kilpatrick and the uber-snotty Nicholas von Hoffman.
And here’s a James J. Kilpatrick parody from Airplane—rebutting an unheard point from the unseen Shana Alexander—Nicholas von Hoffman’s replacement on 60 Minutes.
> retroactively defining Biden’s presidency as an impotent interregnum with an erasable policy footprint.
Between the various wars that broke out on his watch, inflation rising by over 20% in official numbers and a lot more than that in reality, and the catastrophic and ongoing damages caused by 4 years of de facto open borders, it seems unlikely that the monstrous "footprints" left by Biden's policies will be erased anytime soon. He's spent the last four years tromping around America like Godzilla in Tokyo. Those are steps that don't just leave footprints; they leave scars.
Appreciate the relatively high rankings for both Grant and Harding. Grant gets too little credit for fighting the KKK during Reconstruction, and Teapot Dome notwithstanding, I’ve never understood the justification for Harding’s low rankings. If nothing else, Harding deserves credit for delivering us from the execrable Woodrow Wilson.