(OOPS! An earlier version was mistitled with “4/20/20” instead of “4/3/20.”)
April 3, 2020, I decided to play Nostradamus and issue 32 predictions (conjectures, really) about how COVID-19 would change the world. Let’s see how I did. But first, a brief chronology of the two months that preceded that day and motivated my tweets—a quick review of how quickly the world unraveled.
— February 6, 2020 (Day 1), I flew to Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to spend four or five days with around 20 scholars, discussing how a public health system ought to react to a pandemic. The program had been in the works for a year. On Day One, a leading participant jokingly congratulated one of the planners for arranging an epidemic in China to give our conference some measure of immediacy. So far as I can remember that was the one and only mention of the epidemic then circulating in Wuhan.
— February 13, 2020 (Day 8), without a care in the world, my wife and I flew to Florida to visit friends up and down the Gulf Coast, from Tampa to Naples. There was no thought of masks, quarantines, social distancing, or hand sanitizers. One friend is an international supply-chain consultant. We discussed his work in great detail. I don’t believe we ever discussed the question, “How might a pandemic disrupt supply chains?” We returned home around February 18.
—March 5 (Day 28), we cancelled a long-planned March 12 trip to visit friends in Charleston, South Carolina. News reports were beginning to look grim, and we thought that it best to avoid air travel until we knew what was up.
—March 9 (Day 32). I was scheduled to give a lecture at the University of Richmond, 100 miles south of my home. I drove down the evening of March 8 and stayed at the small inn the Alumni Center has for visitors. It was Spring Break, so a small crowd was natural, but I was the only person in the entire building. The audience and I were both skittish about close contact.
—March 12 (Day 35), I told my employer that I would be working from home until further notice.
—By April 3 (Day 58), it was obvious that this was a full-blown pandemic and that radical changes were in store. I turned to Twitter to launch 32 tweets containing my thoughts on what the world might look like after COVID-19 had died down. Here are those 32 tweets (slightly edited for formatting). I’ll leave it to you to determine how right or wrong these conjectures look after two-and-a-half years. Comments are welcome.
The Roaring 20s died with the 29 crash and the ensuing Depression. Privation forged a self-sacrificing, steely generation—to the dismay of Hitler, Mussolini & Tojo. COVID has likely ended the pre-2020 world. Here are my 32 bets on how—to be checked in a year or five.
FEWER HEALTH REGS: COVID has sparked a realization that government micromanagement of healthcare is lethal. Lawmakers are jettisoning regulations with astonishing speed, trying to unparalyze delivery systems. Post-COVID, patients and providers will face fewer limits on care.
MORE FEDERALISM: States are painfully learning that they, not distant federal officials, are best situated to plan for disasters & manage responses. Post-COVID, states will distrust federal largesse and competence and take greater control of their own affairs.
GERMOPHOBIA!: 85 years after the stock market crash destroyed my grandparents’ finances, my mother still didn’t trust stock markets or banks. Post-COVID, folk will retain a whiff of germophobia for the rest of their lives.
FEWER ZOMBIES: 1910s amusement parks showcased disaster spectacles—fires, floods, battles. After WWI and Spanish flu, no one wanted to pay for fear. Post-COVID, zombie & contagion films will be bitter reminders & more pastoral offerings will be in vogue.
CLOSER TRAVEL: The Post-COVID world will be rife with memories of passengers imprisoned on virus-laden cruise ships and world jet-setters desperate for a plane home. Future vacationers will veer toward nearby beaches and mountains, if not homebound staycations.
BYE-BYE METROPOLIS: In NYC, social distancing is difficult for all but shut-ins & plutocrats. Every surface is germ-laden. Seattle, New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, LA, & SF are hot zones. Post-COVID, smaller, greener places will provide much more alluring homes.
MORE TELEMEDICINE: With social distancing, telemedicine is suddenly the smart way to get care outside of doctors' offices, which are time-consuming petri dishes. Post-COVID, laptop, tablet, or smartphone will become the routine first stop for care.
DISTANCE LEARNING RULES: I got a high-quality master's degree via distance learning & taught 45 DL graduate courses at 4 universities. Quarantine will show that DL teaching/learning is often superior to in-class & far more convenient. More will study this way Post-COVID.
RISE OF HOME SCHOOLING: Bricks-and-mortar schools are often inconvenient, disease-ridden indoctrination mills, rife with behavioral problems. My home-schooled college students were impressive and mature. Post-COVID, home-schooling (and tiny schools) will gain in popularity.
TELECOMMUTING: I've never written so much or had so many good meetings as during the COVID quarantine. Telecommuting means less time wasted on the road, chatting by the coffee machine, heading out for lunch, paying for floor space. Post-COVID, lots more will telecommute.
STAGGERED WORK HOURS: During the 1918-20 Spanish flu, NYC businesses staggered work hours to reduce rush-hour congestion on roads and subways. This lowered death rates and congestion annoyance. Post-COVID, this idea will gain traction.
FEWER BOONDOGGLES: COVID’s economic devastation will leave limited money and less tolerance for dewy-eyed public spending—Solyndra, bullet trains, etc. Post-COVID, public spending will shift toward projects with shorter horizons and tangible benefits.
MORE CONFERENCES BY VIDEO: I've often spent 3 days on the road to give a one-hour lecture on the middle day. Travel is nice, as are drinks with conferees. But it’s a hugely expensive way to interact. Post-COVID, videoconferences will replace a lot of junkets.
MORE VIDEO CALLS: As the quarantine wears on, more of my routine calls involve video, rather than audio-only. A bit of humanity in a lonely time. Post-COVID, Skype, FaceTime, &c will grow more important as telecommuting and videos replace offices and conferences.
DELIVERY SYSTEM MORE IMPORTANT THAN PAYMENTS: We'll see how the US healthcare fares vs others, but single-payer systems like China, Iran, Italy, and Spain aren't shining. An insurance card is little consolation when you need an ICU. Post-COVID, delivery will surpass insurance in policy debate.
EUROPEAN DISUNION: 19thC EU precursors (Latin & Scandinavian Monetary Unions) broke up after members exploited one another during crisis. Richer EU countries have largely abandoned Italy & Spain during COVID. Post-COVID, more countries will follow the UK in exiting.
MORE HOME DELIVERIES: Online shopping & grocery deliveries have been COVID's godsend—and really convenient. Post-COVID, we’ll continue shopping this way, with fewer visits to the stores.
MAYBERRY RETURNS: Where I live, people are socially distancing but chatting with more neighbors than ever before—a pleasant side-effect of a harrowing time. Post-COVID, this renewed sense of community will continue and grow—accompanied by a resurgence of moseying.
LONGER (& WHITER) HAIR: Many of us will emerge from extended quarantine with longer hair than we’ve had since the 1970s and whiter hair than we've ever had. Some of us will like what we see. Expect longer hair, less dye Post-COVID.
FEWER ELOI: Many college students’ families will have known bankruptcy, unemployment, privation, and death. Post-COVID, expect them to abandon frivolous, PC majors for practical, career-oriented studies.
RISE OF VOCATIONS: Aside from healthcare professionals, the heroes of COVID—and those still earning money—are farmers, truckers, grocers, repairmen, etc. Post-COVID, many young will turn to these professions in lieu of college.
PRIVATE TRANSPORT: Subways, buses, trolleys, trains, airplanes are now virus-filled cylinders. That memory will linger. Post-COVID, we’ll shift toward private modes of conveyance—cars, small planes/boats, bikes, scooters, feet—and support for public transport will wane.
RETURN OF PLASTIC & PAPER BAGS: Reusable tote bags were always an unsanitary idea. Post-COVID, we'll mostly say good riddance to them. Sorry, PBS.
TINY URBAN HOUSES NO MORE: Lately, some have touted the idea of densely-clustered, teeny-tiny houses in urban areas. They must be excruciating during month-long lockdowns. Post-COVID, this idea will die quickly.
NO SAFE SPACES: Teens and 20-somethings are enduring terrors and tribulations greater than their self-pitying Boomer antecedents ever imagined. Post-COVID, the notion of safe spaces will become an atavistic folly and snowflake culture will melt away.
MORE AUTARKY: During COVID, borders are shut. China's COVID duplicity has earned that economic giant the world's opprobrium. Post-COVID, free trade, global supply chains, and international mobility will be victims of this plague for a while.
VIRTUAL RELIGIOUS LIFE: Finding the right congregation is tough. Wife & I are sick of domestic politics from the pulpit. Many are now joining online gatherings, and friends have high praise. Post-COVID, religious life will prominently feature virtual spiritual communities.
FAMILY OVER MOBILITY: For decades, Americans have moved vast distances for dream jobs and new scenery; visiting home was easy. COVID has painfully isolated millions from their families. Post-COVID, more will reject the thrill of the globe and live closer to family.
AUTONOMOUS LABOR: With the shutdown, many are feeding families with gigs (eg, delivering groceries, telemed doctors) in lieu of vanished jobs. Whatever shortcomings (eg, benefits), Post-COVID, the nimbleness and autonomy of gigs will be more attractive.
HOME ENTERTAINMENT: Social distancing will be habit-forming. Post-COVID, theaters, stadiums, bars, museums will give way to home entertainment—streaming films, dinner parties, online concerts, virtual museums, social media, reading, conversation.
TECH-Y CARE: Patients & providers will turn to tech—apps, social media, remote monitoring, artificial intelligence, machine learning, drones—to supplement an overburdened healthcare system. Post-COVID, innovations will bloom, with patients & providers happily using them.
FREER SMALL BUSINESS: COVID will destroy many SBs. Post-COVID, some will shy away from risks of entrepreneurship. Others will see opportunity amid the ruins. Not sure which will dominate, but expect heavy pressure on governments to lighten-up on regulation as we rebuild.
Pretty good, certainly in terms of most of the trends they are generally in the direction you predicted.