The “game” played by Hezbollah was how to keep Israel from following our communications. So we can kill more Jews. The game played by Israel was how do we disable Hezbollah. So they can’t kill Israelis. By not considering the implausible creates a reality where the intellectual creates the physical. The same happened on the other side on October 7. Even though lower level Israeli’s warned their higher-ups that something was going to happen they were ignored because intellectual laziness and hubris.
My vague impression is that the Israelis have a generally hard time wrapping their heads around the idea that large numbers of people can make clearly stupid and futile decisions:
They might have considered something like 10/7 and thought "Nah, while there may be individual crazies who would do the deeds on the ground, there's no way the money people and smarter upper leadership would run it, because it would be freaking suicidal." And suicidal is indeed what it is proving to be. But people actually do make dumb and suicidal decisions all the time, sometimes because they're just dumb, something because they can delude themselves about the outcome, sometimes because they are OK with suicide if something satisfying precedes it.
There's a great quote attributed to Napoleon about this, which is roughly "Reasonable men have a tendency to assume that all other men are reasonable, in which point of view they are not reasonable."
Excellent per analysis--and I knew what the video clip was going to be. :) Your Napoleon quote reminds me of a concept that came out of the business literature--The Abilene Paradox. This is a situation where a group decides collectively to do something that none of the individual members wishes to do. They do so because each member mistakenly assumes that all the other members want to do so, and all defer to this imagined consensus. The name came from an academic whose family drove 30 miles to a diner in Abilene, Texas on a hot dusty night--only to realize after returning home that no one had wanted to go to that diner.
You don't have to spend a whole lot of time in any largish organization to see that happen. It doesn't usually happen in my family because despite loving each other greatly we also like saying mean things to each other and being painfully honest. Most of the time. Our joking is harsh. One former sister-in-law finally figured out that after she whined so mush we making mean jokes with her that she didn't have a whole lot of respect in the family. Toughen up, or leave.
One of my favorite memories was when my wife (second wife -- we've been married 30 years plus) said after one of my family hoilday get togethers where games were played, "Don't you ever let the children win games? They're in tears more than half the time." And I told her, "No. We play a lot of games where they can win by luck, and we help them celebrate when they win. But when they're playing games that require practice, and skill, and knowledge, and thought, and such they get no breaks. If they're old enough to want to play, they're old enough to learn what losing feels like and what they need to do to win. Toughens them up."
Some management consultant sold the pager notion, charging H a fat fee. What can be said, besides, if you are getting your ideas from Hollywood scriptwriters, disaster is barreling toward you, smirking.
Hezbollah paid for the instruments of their deaths and dismemberments. And they were in charge of distribution. Apparently, each phone was signaled individually, so they knew who was carrying it and where they were.
Did the show have an episode with walkie talkies?
Great follow-up question.
Also, it sounds like this may fall under the category "predictive programming."
Not in the context of cloning or bugging them. There’s plenty of walkie talkies, but just in the context of regular police work
Mossad frontman to Hezbollah: "Habibi, have I got a deal for you. 2800 pagers, cheap."
There is a helluva story here, one we will probably never know in full detail.
The “game” played by Hezbollah was how to keep Israel from following our communications. So we can kill more Jews. The game played by Israel was how do we disable Hezbollah. So they can’t kill Israelis. By not considering the implausible creates a reality where the intellectual creates the physical. The same happened on the other side on October 7. Even though lower level Israeli’s warned their higher-ups that something was going to happen they were ignored because intellectual laziness and hubris.
Can't disagree!
My vague impression is that the Israelis have a generally hard time wrapping their heads around the idea that large numbers of people can make clearly stupid and futile decisions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h4DZeBleLs
They might have considered something like 10/7 and thought "Nah, while there may be individual crazies who would do the deeds on the ground, there's no way the money people and smarter upper leadership would run it, because it would be freaking suicidal." And suicidal is indeed what it is proving to be. But people actually do make dumb and suicidal decisions all the time, sometimes because they're just dumb, something because they can delude themselves about the outcome, sometimes because they are OK with suicide if something satisfying precedes it.
There's a great quote attributed to Napoleon about this, which is roughly "Reasonable men have a tendency to assume that all other men are reasonable, in which point of view they are not reasonable."
Excellent per analysis--and I knew what the video clip was going to be. :) Your Napoleon quote reminds me of a concept that came out of the business literature--The Abilene Paradox. This is a situation where a group decides collectively to do something that none of the individual members wishes to do. They do so because each member mistakenly assumes that all the other members want to do so, and all defer to this imagined consensus. The name came from an academic whose family drove 30 miles to a diner in Abilene, Texas on a hot dusty night--only to realize after returning home that no one had wanted to go to that diner.
You don't have to spend a whole lot of time in any largish organization to see that happen. It doesn't usually happen in my family because despite loving each other greatly we also like saying mean things to each other and being painfully honest. Most of the time. Our joking is harsh. One former sister-in-law finally figured out that after she whined so mush we making mean jokes with her that she didn't have a whole lot of respect in the family. Toughen up, or leave.
One of my favorite memories was when my wife (second wife -- we've been married 30 years plus) said after one of my family hoilday get togethers where games were played, "Don't you ever let the children win games? They're in tears more than half the time." And I told her, "No. We play a lot of games where they can win by luck, and we help them celebrate when they win. But when they're playing games that require practice, and skill, and knowledge, and thought, and such they get no breaks. If they're old enough to want to play, they're old enough to learn what losing feels like and what they need to do to win. Toughens them up."
And they all seem to appreciate it later.
Sounds like an excellent strategy to me. Polar opposite of contemporary educational philosophy.
Some management consultant sold the pager notion, charging H a fat fee. What can be said, besides, if you are getting your ideas from Hollywood scriptwriters, disaster is barreling toward you, smirking.
Hezbollah paid for the instruments of their deaths and dismemberments. And they were in charge of distribution. Apparently, each phone was signaled individually, so they knew who was carrying it and where they were.