Thanks for a fascinating glimpse of our past and a discussion of the future through the lens of lontermism. Huge growth in government (and an Executive with a 1000 person staff!j at the dawn of the 20th century seems to foretell the coming Progressive wave and a prosperous future with great public works. As always, real Ilfe turns out a bit differently.
Interesting that they would speculate on the development of radical new technology, like aerotrans and pneumatic trains, but were helpless with something that slowly evolves, like clothing styles. (They did take a crack at architecture, and missed by several miles.) There's probably a message there.
Well, just to be clear, all those illustrations in the article were my creations. However, I specifically created them to look like the actual futurist fantasies of that period. For actual examples, see the French series, "En l'An 2000" (in the year 2000), drawn around the year 1900: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/En_L%27An_2000
Robert, you have got to be one of the smartest most entertaining writers on Substack (or maybe off, too) ... great perspectives & writing ... thanks ... DQ
As I mentioned to you previously, I am currently reading Thomas Sowell’s The Vision of the Anointed (1995, Basic Books 2022). In the index, the terms ‘effective altruism’ and ‘longtermism’ do not appear. But most everything of significance in this book argues against such anointed visions...!
Quite a find. The Pan-American dream has been running for a long time, with endless attempts to build highways and railroads from Nome to Tierra del Fuego. Despite all the effort, there's still no highway or railroad through the Darien Gap. No technical barrier, just apparently not worth the trouble.
Yup. I wrote about the Darien Gap in https://graboyes.substack.com/p/a-health-economist-tours-scotland. Scotland tried to establish a colony there. The colony’s spectacular failure effectively bankrupted the Kingdom of Scotland and played a major role in ending Scottish Independence. Since then, it has remained a problematic area that few wish to pass through. Another reason for not building bridges through the area is to prevent North American wildlife species from walking into South America and ice versa.
Jul 10, 2023·edited Jul 10, 2023Liked by Robert F. Graboyes
In 1893, eight years before the McKinley inauguration, Chicago hosted the World's Columbian Exposition. The Chicago Tribune commissioned essays from a variety of noted personalities to predict the state of the world in 1993. In that latter year, the Chicago Historical Society reprinted the essays in a slim volume called "Today Then," sadly now out-of-print.
A great many of the essayists expressed the same boosterism as the McKinley campaign: the United States encompassing the entire Western Hemisphere, Chicago the largest city in the world with a population of 10 million, etc. Many predicted air travel, television, talking pictures, and other technological marvels.
Not one predicted the automobile.
A great deal of ink was spilled describing how Chicago, with its 10 million residents, would handle the daily manure from the millions of horses necessary to run such a city.
The other major concern of the day was "the servant problem." This was noted many times, but never explained: it was just assumed that everybody knew what it was. It took me many years (1993 being pre-Google) to find out: this was rich people complaining that poor immigrant girls no longer wanted to be maids, since they could earn more money in a factory or sweat shop.
I frequently warned my Public Management grad students about the dangers of choosing "the best long-term plan/policy" if there was no good way to stop and back up if it went wrong. I prefer the 2nd or 3rd or 4th "best plan" if they offer a good opportunity to change course at need. And "never, ever fall in love with your plan."
The truly best plan is ALWAYS adequately flexible in the face of problems.
Somewhat related: Robert Alexander Watson-Watt, the developer of radar, called for a “cult of the imperfect,” which he stated as “Give them the third best to go on with; the second best comes too late, the best never comes.”
My version (and maybe I had read the Watson-Watt quote somewhere) was "if you can make even the 4th or 5th best work adequately you'll be well-employed and respected for your professional life."
I think a couple of them took those words to heart. And I have some darned good former students managing government units of 5-50,000 people.
No clue. The only name I find associated with the program is an Isadore Saks, who seems to have chaired the Inaugural Committee. No indication as to who wrote the content.
Thanks for a fascinating glimpse of our past and a discussion of the future through the lens of lontermism. Huge growth in government (and an Executive with a 1000 person staff!j at the dawn of the 20th century seems to foretell the coming Progressive wave and a prosperous future with great public works. As always, real Ilfe turns out a bit differently.
Twas quite a fantasy. Tells you how self-sure the 19th century had made them .
Interesting that they would speculate on the development of radical new technology, like aerotrans and pneumatic trains, but were helpless with something that slowly evolves, like clothing styles. (They did take a crack at architecture, and missed by several miles.) There's probably a message there.
Well, just to be clear, all those illustrations in the article were my creations. However, I specifically created them to look like the actual futurist fantasies of that period. For actual examples, see the French series, "En l'An 2000" (in the year 2000), drawn around the year 1900: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/En_L%27An_2000
Robert, you have got to be one of the smartest most entertaining writers on Substack (or maybe off, too) ... great perspectives & writing ... thanks ... DQ
Well that’s about the best review I’ve gotten. Thanks!
Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit linked you - stand back!
Instapundit has been very generous about linking to my pieces. Glad you saw this one.
As I mentioned to you previously, I am currently reading Thomas Sowell’s The Vision of the Anointed (1995, Basic Books 2022). In the index, the terms ‘effective altruism’ and ‘longtermism’ do not appear. But most everything of significance in this book argues against such anointed visions...!
Thanks! Not surprised. :)
The Laws of Unintended Consequences:
1. They exist.
2. They are rarely desirable.
3. They are often far more significant than the intended result.
Longtermism ignores this and also forgets that, in the light of all possible knowledge, we know nothing.
Great observations!
Quite a find. The Pan-American dream has been running for a long time, with endless attempts to build highways and railroads from Nome to Tierra del Fuego. Despite all the effort, there's still no highway or railroad through the Darien Gap. No technical barrier, just apparently not worth the trouble.
That's just the way the pirates want it - so sez my many Central American friends ...
Yes. And see my comments to polistra above.
Yup. I wrote about the Darien Gap in https://graboyes.substack.com/p/a-health-economist-tours-scotland. Scotland tried to establish a colony there. The colony’s spectacular failure effectively bankrupted the Kingdom of Scotland and played a major role in ending Scottish Independence. Since then, it has remained a problematic area that few wish to pass through. Another reason for not building bridges through the area is to prevent North American wildlife species from walking into South America and ice versa.
In 1893, eight years before the McKinley inauguration, Chicago hosted the World's Columbian Exposition. The Chicago Tribune commissioned essays from a variety of noted personalities to predict the state of the world in 1993. In that latter year, the Chicago Historical Society reprinted the essays in a slim volume called "Today Then," sadly now out-of-print.
A great many of the essayists expressed the same boosterism as the McKinley campaign: the United States encompassing the entire Western Hemisphere, Chicago the largest city in the world with a population of 10 million, etc. Many predicted air travel, television, talking pictures, and other technological marvels.
Not one predicted the automobile.
A great deal of ink was spilled describing how Chicago, with its 10 million residents, would handle the daily manure from the millions of horses necessary to run such a city.
The other major concern of the day was "the servant problem." This was noted many times, but never explained: it was just assumed that everybody knew what it was. It took me many years (1993 being pre-Google) to find out: this was rich people complaining that poor immigrant girls no longer wanted to be maids, since they could earn more money in a factory or sweat shop.
*travel
(Edit function does not seem to be working.)
I just ordered it on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Today-Then-Americas-Columbian-Exposition/dp/1560370246/
And here it is on the Internet Archive site: https://archive.org/details/todaythen00davi/mode/2up
FYI: My copy of "Today Then" arrived on Wednesday. Great fun reading it. I'll most certainly write about it. Thanks so much for the tip.
I frequently warned my Public Management grad students about the dangers of choosing "the best long-term plan/policy" if there was no good way to stop and back up if it went wrong. I prefer the 2nd or 3rd or 4th "best plan" if they offer a good opportunity to change course at need. And "never, ever fall in love with your plan."
The truly best plan is ALWAYS adequately flexible in the face of problems.
Somewhat related: Robert Alexander Watson-Watt, the developer of radar, called for a “cult of the imperfect,” which he stated as “Give them the third best to go on with; the second best comes too late, the best never comes.”
My version (and maybe I had read the Watson-Watt quote somewhere) was "if you can make even the 4th or 5th best work adequately you'll be well-employed and respected for your professional life."
I think a couple of them took those words to heart. And I have some darned good former students managing government units of 5-50,000 people.
The assumption of neighboring countries having been assimilated as states is fascinating ... and very 19th century.
Manifest Destiny 2.0
Who is credited with writing the Barrington inauguration piece. Ver clever and extremely well written.
Lola
No clue. The only name I find associated with the program is an Isadore Saks, who seems to have chaired the Inaugural Committee. No indication as to who wrote the content.
anybody can remember the past. remembering the future is hard