Presidential Election Pre-Postmortem
Presidential Election Pre-Postmortem
Why wait till November to look back on what happened in the presidential election?
I decided to write my November 2024 election postmortem in early September so I can stop listening to political coverage and focus, instead, on mowing the lawn, cleaning out drawers, and making some more coffee. As soon as a winner has been declared (i.e., sometime between November 5 and January 6), simply print off this article and, between each pair of brackets, cross out the left-hand entry if Harris has won, or the right-hand entry if Trump has won.
THE 2024 ELECTION IS OVER and [Donald Trump // Kamala Harris] has won. Or, perhaps it’s more correct to say that [Kamala Harris // Donald Trump] has lost the election, because after [Trump’s // Harris’s] stumbling, error-ridden campaign, it seems inappropriate to describe [him // her] as a “winner.” It was obvious from August on that [Trump // Harris] would defeat [Harris // Trump], and it’s astounding how wrong the political experts’ predictions proved to be.
[Harris’s // Trump’s] demise was set in motion before the convention with [her // his] choice of [Gov. Tim Walz // Sen. J.D. Vance]—who failed to attract as many middle-class Midwestern male voters as [Democratic // Republican] campaign strategists had hoped beforehand. Now that their presidential ticket has gone down in defeat, party leaders who had urged [Harris // Trump] to select [Gov. Josh Shapiro // Gov. Glenn Youngkin] are shouting, “I told you so,” to whomever is within earshot. At the convention, [Harris’s // Trump’s] [gauzy // meandering] acceptance speech was, in retrospect, a missed opportunity to persuade undecided voters that the newly [anointed // reanointed] nominee was not [vacuous // unhinged].
The dynamics that began with the conventions hardened like concrete during the September 10 debate. Voters were profoundly turned off by [Harris’s // Trump’s] [smirk // scowl]. [Harris // Trump] was [overprepped // unprepared] and weakened [her // his] case with childish insults and factual misstatements. Focus groups indicated that [Harris // Trump] lost significant ground with [her // his] weird, conspiratorial preoccupation with [Project 2025 // Haitians and household pets]. As many noted afterward, [Harris’s // Trump’s] performance was clearly damaged by [her / his] lack of primary-season debates. [Democratic // Republican] PR specialists also blamed the vapid, unprofessional behavior of ABC’s debate moderators, whose annoying, repetitious, one-sided fact-checking of Trump energized [Republican // Democratic] voters.
A host of other factors contributed to the outcome. The multiple criminal cases brought against Trump were seen by many voters as [banana republic persecution of a political opponent // proof of his unfitness for office], and the former president’s 34 felony convictions in New York persuaded a surprising portion of the electorate to vote [Republican // Democratic]. [Democrats // Republicans] failed to foresee how badly the sudden defenestration of Joe Biden and the hurried coronation of Kamala Harris would erode [Harris’s // Trump’s] credibility. In part, the outcome reflected the fact that African Americans and Hispanic Americans defected to Donald Trump in [larger // smaller] numbers than some had anticipated.
It also appears that [Harris’s // Trump’s] dalliance with [Antifa // January 6] rioters in 2020-21 left more of a sour taste in the mouths of independent voters than [Democrats // Republicans] had imagined. Voters concerned about elitist influence on American politics were deeply put off by the partisan involvement of billionaires like [Mark Cuban // Elon Musk] and celebrities like [Taylor Swift // Hulk Hogan]. Few voters, it turns out, were swayed by cross-party endorsements by marginal characters like [Dick and Liz Cheney // Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard].
Pollsters said large numbers of voters were distressed by [Harris’s absence of policy positions // Trump’s policy positions]. At a more visceral level, many told those pollsters that, “I simply cannot stand the very thought of hearing [her // his] voice and seeing [her // his] facial expressions for another four years.” In perhaps the most predictable turn of all, [Harris’s // Trump’s] campaign was thrown into crisis in October after an embarrassing gaffe.
According to one livid [Democratic // Republican] fundraiser, the fundamental problem was simple: [“The party professionals failed to listen to the rank-and-file Democratic voters who repeatedly warned that they were deeply dissatisfied with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.” // “The rank-and-file Republican voters failed to listen to the party professionals who repeatedly warned that they were deeply dissatisfied with Donald Trump.”]
On the streets of Washington today, angry [Democrats // Republicans] are massing to protest what they consider to be a fraudulent and illegitimate outcome [just as they did in 2017 // just as they did in 2021]. Fox and MSNBC will provide round-the-clock coverage of the protests. Meanwhile, on CNN, a panel of experts will debate the likely outcome of a 2028 [presidential contest between J.D. Vance and Tim Walz // rematch between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump].
A BRIEF HISTORY OF TV CAMPAIGN ADS
Here’s a pleasant little video showing presidential campaign ads from 1952 through the early 2000s. It was produced by an ABC affiliate in Utah and features journalist Craig Wirth.
That was very clever. All of this is 20 -20 hindsight. I have no idea how things will turn out but then neither do the experts. I always wanted to have a job as an expert. They were never wrong.
Loved this post. Very clever and different. Can't wait to fill it out after the election. Depending on the outcome, I will be on may knees (thanking God for the outcome/wailing and gnashing my teeth), Rick