My wife grew up on a chicken farm. When the chickens were young as you reported there were a good many double yolkers. Her Dad would keep them for the family because he liked the yolk. I would have many a double yolk omelet when we were dating.
Valid statistics depends on random samples. Once you inject human perception into the sampling, abandon all hope ye who enter here.
I enjoyed your article. For my entire life, my wife has insisted on jumbo eggs. So, my perception is that double-yolks are quite common. And they are, because of the selection process that precedes my experience with the eggs.
You have to wonder how our perception of many things in our lives is biased by a selection process that we never see or are not even aware of.
Among my circle of potluck acquaintances I am the "Devilled Egg Queen" and I always use jumbo eggs for these, although I buy large for ordinary cooking and baking because recipes are generally calibrated for those. So I knew exactly where you were going with the double yolk thing!
As a "numbers guy" I loved this piece. I get very agitated at statements made with certainty about results which are decidedly uncertain. This is prevalent in the field of investing. I'm constantly shouting inside my brain "You can'y say that!" You've reminded me of a few items that never seem far away from usage:
1) Death and taxes...there's a reason that phrase sticks around
2) Risk means more things can happen than will happen - Elroy Dimson
3) We traditionally view lottery winning as good, but I often tell people there are negative lotteries (e.g. plane crash)
4) People (me too) complain about auto insurance rates going up, yet within 5 minutes yesterday I observed two different drivers in my rear view mirror with heads pointed 90 degrees down at their cell phones. Upon a stoplight turning green, one of them did not move for 8-10 seconds. Insurance is a risk probability x loss severity business. In automobiles distractions increase risk.
Finally, I remember a famous 1984 Warren Buffett article on investment performance, which utilized an entertaining introduction about consecutive coin flipping:
As an engineer and a mathematician I am regularly appalled at the statistical ignorance of the media and the ordinary citizens in general. When I see some probability quoted in the public press I immediately doubt the rest of the article.
My wife grew up on a chicken farm. When the chickens were young as you reported there were a good many double yolkers. Her Dad would keep them for the family because he liked the yolk. I would have many a double yolk omelet when we were dating.
Valid statistics depends on random samples. Once you inject human perception into the sampling, abandon all hope ye who enter here.
I enjoyed your article. For my entire life, my wife has insisted on jumbo eggs. So, my perception is that double-yolks are quite common. And they are, because of the selection process that precedes my experience with the eggs.
You have to wonder how our perception of many things in our lives is biased by a selection process that we never see or are not even aware of.
Among my circle of potluck acquaintances I am the "Devilled Egg Queen" and I always use jumbo eggs for these, although I buy large for ordinary cooking and baking because recipes are generally calibrated for those. So I knew exactly where you were going with the double yolk thing!
Wonderful discussion! It reminds me of the Monty Hall problem discussion, though they are not the same
As a "numbers guy" I loved this piece. I get very agitated at statements made with certainty about results which are decidedly uncertain. This is prevalent in the field of investing. I'm constantly shouting inside my brain "You can'y say that!" You've reminded me of a few items that never seem far away from usage:
1) Death and taxes...there's a reason that phrase sticks around
2) Risk means more things can happen than will happen - Elroy Dimson
3) We traditionally view lottery winning as good, but I often tell people there are negative lotteries (e.g. plane crash)
4) People (me too) complain about auto insurance rates going up, yet within 5 minutes yesterday I observed two different drivers in my rear view mirror with heads pointed 90 degrees down at their cell phones. Upon a stoplight turning green, one of them did not move for 8-10 seconds. Insurance is a risk probability x loss severity business. In automobiles distractions increase risk.
Finally, I remember a famous 1984 Warren Buffett article on investment performance, which utilized an entertaining introduction about consecutive coin flipping:
http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/The-Superinvestors-of-Graham-and-Doddsville-by-Warren-Buffett.pdf
How very interesting. And I hate math. as Disraeli said there are 3 kinds of lies, lies, damned lies and statistics.
Now this brings back some old, unused memories: “chrono-synclastic infundibulum” in The Sirens of Titan. I thought it was de novo from Vonnegut.
As an engineer and a mathematician I am regularly appalled at the statistical ignorance of the media and the ordinary citizens in general. When I see some probability quoted in the public press I immediately doubt the rest of the article.
As somone who used have a home flock of about 30 chickens, I can say that double-yolks are not that rare. Maybe it's a breed thing as well?