A few years ago I was interviewing someone for my book on textiles. With some embarrassment she asked whether I might know a journalist neighbor of hers, despite knowing that 1) there are a zillion journalists 2) we lived a continent apart. Although we'd since lost touch, her journalist neighbor had been the matron of honor at my wedding.
> “Have you ever witnessed a total solar eclipse? Usually when I give a lecture, only a couple of people in an audience of several hundred people raise their hands when I ask that question. A few others respond tentatively, saying, ‘I think I saw one.’ That’s like a woman saying, ‘I think I once gave birth.’”
See also: spiritual experiences. For people who have personally felt God's hand in their lives, it is an unmistakable and distinctive thing, which people who have not simply aren't equipped to fully comprehend. Miracles are very real. Anyone who's experienced one *knows* that, and anyone who hasn't does not have the necessary basis by which to claim that they're not.
I came to report mine, and it more properly belongs under your comment. About 25 years ago I had reluctantly agreed to act in a play with my church drama group. Almost right after rehearsals started, I developed a scaly patch on the bridge of my nose; it didn't hurt and really was only noticeable under stage makeup. So I went to a dermatologist friend of mine, and he diagnosed it as a seborrheic keratosis, common and benign. For reasons I still don't understand, he wanted to see if I had any on my back (I did), but immediately after I took off my shirt he said, "Oh my. How long have you had this? I don't like this, I don't like its color and I don't like its shape." I of course had no idea what he was talking about, as it was a mole I was vaguely aware of but couldn't see even in a mirror. He scooped it off, it was a malignant melanoma, I went later for a wide excision, and here I am 25 years later. If any of those things hadn't happened -- the play, the scaly patch, my dermatologist's still unexplained OCD -- that cancer would have killed me 23-24 years ago.
He had developed a fairly mild case of shingles, but wasn’t sure what it was. I was pregnant and planning to visit my parents at the time (I lived in a distant state), and they were nervous about the situation. Dad was unable to see his doctor so he made an appointment with the newly built VA clinic in their town (he was a WWII vet). The doctor there diagnosed him and then talked him into returning for a follow up physical.
He was later diagnosed at that clinic with aggressive prostate cancer — I believe a 7 or 8 on the Gleason scale. The PSA test was new at the time, if I remember correctly.
Dad underwent surgery. He lived another 35 years, finally leaving us at the advanced age of 95.
I’m reminded of the line from “Hamlet”: “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
My personal experience with unexplained coincidences is very personal. My father’s oldest brother was killed in WWII on May 10, their mother’s birthday. Twenty years later, their mother died on October 20, her dead son’s birthday. Seventy years after his brother died, my father died on May 10, his brother’s date of death and their mother’s birthday.
I witnessed a total solar eclipse on a tennis court in Nairobi, Kenya. I've forgotten the year, but I believe it was between 1990 and 1995. It was amazing, especially the birds going silent and the multiple images of the crescent sun projected on the ground from pinholes between tree leaves. But all I could think was "when will it get light enough for us to start playing tennis again?" Talk about a selfish response to a magical phenomenon! And I have seen two partial eclipses since then. Totality is worth the extra ticket price. It also stops tennis games on unlighted courts.
I wish I had personal examples of stunning coincidences, but I've passed a horribly boring life.
The posterior probability of any event that has already happened is one. It is simply a misuse of statistical probabilities to create a sense of “specialness” over an event that has happened. If one had to use probabilities, the question that is being posed is more along the lines of “What are the odds that you could have predicted this event?”
To take a very simple control example: take a pack of cards and deal out four hands of thirteen cards, something that is done thousands of times a day by bridge players. When everybody picks up their cards, there is rarely any expressions of amazement, but the odds of that particular deal, however “normal” it appears are about 1 in 61 billion – but there it is, fantastic! (The calculation is 4!13 × 13!4 / 52!).
If someone predicted the deal, we would rightly be amazed (or rather suspect cheating) but the simple existence creates no sense of wonder at all.
The general concept of probabilities rely on simple, repeatable processes where can establish physical behaviour across very long runs or across large populations. There is no real way that we can establish the parameters of any odds where we do not have this e.g. For the existence of a universe; for the existence of life; for the existence of humanity.
I think that one can have sense of wonder about the world without needing to think that it is all highly improbable – because virtually everything is when one tries to calculate probabilities after the event.
A few years ago I was interviewing someone for my book on textiles. With some embarrassment she asked whether I might know a journalist neighbor of hers, despite knowing that 1) there are a zillion journalists 2) we lived a continent apart. Although we'd since lost touch, her journalist neighbor had been the matron of honor at my wedding.
> “Have you ever witnessed a total solar eclipse? Usually when I give a lecture, only a couple of people in an audience of several hundred people raise their hands when I ask that question. A few others respond tentatively, saying, ‘I think I saw one.’ That’s like a woman saying, ‘I think I once gave birth.’”
See also: spiritual experiences. For people who have personally felt God's hand in their lives, it is an unmistakable and distinctive thing, which people who have not simply aren't equipped to fully comprehend. Miracles are very real. Anyone who's experienced one *knows* that, and anyone who hasn't does not have the necessary basis by which to claim that they're not.
I have not experienced the hand of God, but I want to. I agree with you entirely that it would be unmistakable and transformational.
I came to report mine, and it more properly belongs under your comment. About 25 years ago I had reluctantly agreed to act in a play with my church drama group. Almost right after rehearsals started, I developed a scaly patch on the bridge of my nose; it didn't hurt and really was only noticeable under stage makeup. So I went to a dermatologist friend of mine, and he diagnosed it as a seborrheic keratosis, common and benign. For reasons I still don't understand, he wanted to see if I had any on my back (I did), but immediately after I took off my shirt he said, "Oh my. How long have you had this? I don't like this, I don't like its color and I don't like its shape." I of course had no idea what he was talking about, as it was a mole I was vaguely aware of but couldn't see even in a mirror. He scooped it off, it was a malignant melanoma, I went later for a wide excision, and here I am 25 years later. If any of those things hadn't happened -- the play, the scaly patch, my dermatologist's still unexplained OCD -- that cancer would have killed me 23-24 years ago.
I believe.
RJ, wow. Reminds me of my father’s story.
He had developed a fairly mild case of shingles, but wasn’t sure what it was. I was pregnant and planning to visit my parents at the time (I lived in a distant state), and they were nervous about the situation. Dad was unable to see his doctor so he made an appointment with the newly built VA clinic in their town (he was a WWII vet). The doctor there diagnosed him and then talked him into returning for a follow up physical.
He was later diagnosed at that clinic with aggressive prostate cancer — I believe a 7 or 8 on the Gleason scale. The PSA test was new at the time, if I remember correctly.
Dad underwent surgery. He lived another 35 years, finally leaving us at the advanced age of 95.
The Hand of God? You bet.
Fascinating.
I’m reminded of the line from “Hamlet”: “There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”
My personal experience with unexplained coincidences is very personal. My father’s oldest brother was killed in WWII on May 10, their mother’s birthday. Twenty years later, their mother died on October 20, her dead son’s birthday. Seventy years after his brother died, my father died on May 10, his brother’s date of death and their mother’s birthday.
My brother won the lottery twice. I lean towards a spiritual interpretation. I wrote about it here:
https://www.pisgahsite.com/p/blessing-israel
Robert, what a fascinating collection of vignettes.
I witnessed a total solar eclipse on a tennis court in Nairobi, Kenya. I've forgotten the year, but I believe it was between 1990 and 1995. It was amazing, especially the birds going silent and the multiple images of the crescent sun projected on the ground from pinholes between tree leaves. But all I could think was "when will it get light enough for us to start playing tennis again?" Talk about a selfish response to a magical phenomenon! And I have seen two partial eclipses since then. Totality is worth the extra ticket price. It also stops tennis games on unlighted courts.
I wish I had personal examples of stunning coincidences, but I've passed a horribly boring life.
The posterior probability of any event that has already happened is one. It is simply a misuse of statistical probabilities to create a sense of “specialness” over an event that has happened. If one had to use probabilities, the question that is being posed is more along the lines of “What are the odds that you could have predicted this event?”
To take a very simple control example: take a pack of cards and deal out four hands of thirteen cards, something that is done thousands of times a day by bridge players. When everybody picks up their cards, there is rarely any expressions of amazement, but the odds of that particular deal, however “normal” it appears are about 1 in 61 billion – but there it is, fantastic! (The calculation is 4!13 × 13!4 / 52!).
If someone predicted the deal, we would rightly be amazed (or rather suspect cheating) but the simple existence creates no sense of wonder at all.
The general concept of probabilities rely on simple, repeatable processes where can establish physical behaviour across very long runs or across large populations. There is no real way that we can establish the parameters of any odds where we do not have this e.g. For the existence of a universe; for the existence of life; for the existence of humanity.
I think that one can have sense of wonder about the world without needing to think that it is all highly improbable – because virtually everything is when one tries to calculate probabilities after the event.
I can't wait to hear the next story.